Math Police for State's using Computer DrawsPrev Topic Next Topic

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WIN D

Stone Mountain*Georgia
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Jun 3, 2014, 10:04 am

Is there any sort of mutual understanding or agreement among these state gaming commissions ......regarding rules and standards needed to check "Computer Drawn Games"?

Shouldn't someone be checking these State's and their use of "computer draws"? If not ......why not?

"One day...... they are going to open up one of those little black boxes ....and find a surprise!"

Win d

Who's doing the checking?

Who was doing the audits when the Tenn's computer scandal hit?

Some sort of "Independent" and a open public record that must be published regularly seems reasonable.

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d
onlymoney

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Jun 3, 2014, 11:38 am

It bothers me that so many people are pissed off about the potential problems with computer draws, yet they're totally oblivious, cavalier, and comfortable with ball drawn states and their BS reasons for the many many pre tests, post tests, tube rotations, and machine rotations which beyond the shadow of a doubt throw off any resemblance of patterns that may and do occur.

I recently found out that Florida has 21 ball sets. I believe they perform at least 3 pre tests and 3 post tests. Florida is one of the worst to go out of their way to dissuade patterns from forming.

I know I've beaten a dead horse with this subject already, but I'm compelled to respond when I see a thread regarding these issues.

I just don't buy the BS about ensuring the machines are working properly before a real draw. The machines will break no matter how many tests they perform. And like I've said a thousand times, they are in fact aiding in the breakdown by doing all these tests because there is no such thing as a perpetual motion machine, therefore they are accelerating the wear and tear of the machines.

As far as tampering is involved, there's an easy solution that no one seems to ever respond to. Put the machines and all the associated equipment in a locked room with a video recording it when not in use. It's much simpler, as effective, and cheaper, than to do what they're doing now. But we know they won't change because of their greedy agenda.

Why is there no outrage over this? I don't get it.
rdgrnr

100

The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
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Jun 3, 2014, 11:51 am

It's probably the same everywhere, WIN D.

When some player notices a discrepancy they'll rush in and fix it and say they didn't know how that could have happened.

But until then it's business as usual and Job One for their job security is protecting and enhancing the bottom line to keep the Muckety Mucks happy.

But then I may be jaded, living in Tennessee, which is rated the worst of all the lotteries in the country
bigbear29

United States
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August 1, 2013
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Jun 3, 2014, 12:59 pm

Onlymoney, are you stating that the ball games might be fixed to keep the greedy agenda going?
TnTicketlosers

United States
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February 19, 2009
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Jun 3, 2014, 1:42 pm

Tennessee lottery is the biggest joke,I cant stand playing anymore because I know I wont win.June 13 we are going to Georgia,so excited.I hope to win a little.Its just plain fun to play there.
onlymoney

United States
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Jun 3, 2014, 1:57 pm

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Jun 3, 2014
Onlymoney, are you stating that the ball games might be fixed to keep the greedy agenda going?

I wouldn't use the word "Fixed". It's more like manipulation of the potential pattern formation without physically tampering with the machines.

Someone here on LP once wrote, "it's like starting your car every half hour to make sure the starter is still working". With at least 3 pre-tests and 3 post tests, that's exactly what they're doing. Does that make any sense?

Johnny: Hey Tommy, why do you flush your toilet three times before you actually use it, and 3 times after you use it?

Tommy: I want to make sure the toilet is flushing properly.

Johnny: But If you keep doing this all the time, you'll wear out the internal parts, like the stopper, the floater, the chain that connects the flush handle to the stopper, and your water bill will be higher every month.

Tommy: Just change the subject Johnny, i don't want to talk about this anymore !!!
onlymoney

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Jun 3, 2014, 2:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on Jun 3, 2014
I wouldn't use the word "Fixed". It's more like manipulation of the potential pattern formation without physically tampering with the machines.

Someone here on LP once wrote, "it's like starting your car every half hour to make sure the starter is still working". With at least 3 pre-tests and 3 post tests, that's exactly what they're doing. Does that make any sense?

Johnny: Hey Tommy, why do you flush your toilet three times before you actually use it, and 3 times after you use it?

Tommy: I want to make sure the toilet is flushing properly.

Johnny: But If you keep doing this all the time, you'll wear out the internal parts, like the stopper, the floater, the chain that connects the flush handle to the stopper, and your water bill will be higher every month.

Tommy: Just change the subject Johnny, i don't want to talk about this anymore !!!

In addition, let's say after all these pre tests and post tests the machine breaks down during an actual drawing. What will they do next? Well, my estimation is that they'll re-do the drawing with an alternate machine. So what did they accomplish? They STILL had to use an alternate machine.

They took all the precautions in the world and the machine still broke down.

So basically, this is the bottom line in my opinion. Surely they may have delayed the breakdown of any one particular machine because they have a few of them, so they alternate between them.

But the price of a delay in breakdown is a consistently skewed batch of numbers that don't reflect the natural course of random number distribution. It's a hefty price for the people who use their hard earned money to bet and lose most of the time due to the skewed winning numbers. I'd rather the machines breakdown every week, than to be robbed by these thieves.

In Florida, there are so many repeat straight winners every year it's not funny. Just look at the recent turn of events.

I won straight on 583 a few months ago. A couple of months later it showed up again, STRAIGHT on May 21.

April 21 eve-734

May 15 mid-734

May 17 mid-734

May 28 mid-296

May 30 eve-296

May 25 eve-194

June 2 mid-194

They're conducting so many unnecessary draws, the numbers are coming around full circle...lol
LottoBoner

United States
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Jun 3, 2014, 3:39 pm

If the numbers are coming around full circle, then why are you complaining?
Lucky Loser

Texas
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Jun 3, 2014, 5:15 pm

onlymoney, I share the same views as you about the whole draw process, in general, and I've given other examples of how it seems like 'legalized cheating'. They absolutely tear up perfectly good machines which have already been quality inspected, passed, and signed on. Yet, before each official draw they start 'em up and draw combinations up to five times just to STILL DRAW AN OFFICIAL COMBINATION. Well, hell, what happened to the previous draws conducted with the same balls and machine? Null and void? Who does that kind of BS in a real casino? No one. They'll shuffle the cards a few times really well before passing out a hand. But, they DON'T shuffle, pass out, shuffle, pass out, and then again before issuing an official hand. Same thing applies to Roulette and craps. In Roulette, the spin is the 'pre-test' before it lands. In craps, the shaking of the dice in the hand is the 'pre-test' before the toss.

Man, the dice tosser, shuffler, or wheel spinner would be killed if the bettors put a ton of money on either one, the number(s) landed, and then it was called a pre-test. There'd be mass chaos. Like so, many players have lost in the pre-tests of Pick 3/4 but there's no hell raised. As far as computer draws go, it still cannot be random because it's software that's programmed and told what to do by a human. What worse, they even do pre-tests with the so-called RNG's...which are supposedly already programmed to do a random draw at start-up. With mechanical draws, the balls are already agitated plenty after about thirty seconds...no need to draw anything. But, it's why they do it and has everything to do with what happened during THE VERY LAST DRAW period.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
Jon D

Los Angeles, California
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January 5, 2011
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Jun 3, 2014, 7:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on Jun 3, 2014
Is there any sort of mutual understanding or agreement among these state gaming commissions ......regarding rules and standards needed to check "Computer Drawn Games"?

Shouldn't someone be checking these State's and their use of "computer draws"? If not ......why not?

"One day...... they are going to open up one of those little black boxes ....and find a surprise!"

Win d

Who's doing the checking?

Who was doing the audits when the Tenn's computer scandal hit?

Some sort of "Independent" and a open public record that must be published regularly seems reasonable.

Apparently not, as they keep messing up over and over again.

What I gather is that the lottery buys these draw machines from the vendors, who teaches them how to operate and maintain them, and then gives them a number to call if something goes wrong. But after they leave, the lottery is left to their own devices.

Do they have an on staff statistician regularly analyzing past results for anomalies? Maybe, but probably not. All the mathematical and programming expertise is on the vendor side, not in house in the state lottery. That's why in almost all of the computer draw incidents it was the players who discovered the problem and had to actually alert lottery officials.

They had computer draw problems as recently as last year 2013 in Arizona. As well as Kansas in 2008, and Tennessee in 2007, and again Kansas in 2005, and California in 2004, and again Arizona in 1998. And those are just some of the ones that made the news. Others?
CARBOB

COLUMBUS,GA.
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Jun 4, 2014, 5:26 am

OM & LL-

How many people do you think in Florida,do you think, are aware they have pre-tests? I brought this subject up with the lottery vendors service people. Their response was, Florida has always had pre-tests. I can't prove it, but I don't believe it's true. I asked lottery hqs for a copy of the pre-tests and was told, they are not recorded. Does that sound shady or not.
JonnyBgood07

100

Connecticut
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Jun 4, 2014, 5:46 am

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Jun 4, 2014
OM & LL-

How many people do you think in Florida,do you think, are aware they have pre-tests? I brought this subject up with the lottery vendors service people. Their response was, Florida has always had pre-tests. I can't prove it, but I don't believe it's true. I asked lottery hqs for a copy of the pre-tests and was told, they are not recorded. Does that sound shady or not.

it is shady...and the same here in CT.Sad part is they openly state that their records can be viewed by the public

and they acted like they didn't know what I was talking about .Then they proceeded to repeatedly ask why I was interested in a certain months pretest results.

"No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

for always sticking up for me.."
Lucky Loser

Texas
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Jun 4, 2014, 5:40 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Jun 4, 2014
OM & LL-

How many people do you think in Florida,do you think, are aware they have pre-tests? I brought this subject up with the lottery vendors service people. Their response was, Florida has always had pre-tests. I can't prove it, but I don't believe it's true. I asked lottery hqs for a copy of the pre-tests and was told, they are not recorded. Does that sound shady or not.

CARBOB, I’m certainly not sure how many people may or may not be familiar with the draw process but I they all fall into one of two categories. One, they don’t know and could care less because they’re just not that involved and feel it makes no difference. Two, they do really care, they’re dedicated and involved serious players, but they still don’t quite understand just how it REALLY affects them and their respective play styles (systems/approaches). Well, I feel that I do and will explain once again, in detail, exactly why I call it legalized cheating. I’ll use a real world example from an undisclosed state to support my arguments. While this is only one example, it follows suite with them all…and purposely.

Midday Official Results: 124

Post-Test Results: 755

Pre-Test Result #1: 272

Pre-Test Result#2: 318

Pre-Test Result#3: 647

Pre-Test Result#4: 819

Night Official Results: 013

Post-Test Results: 165

Now, let’s go over what really happening here in my best educated and fact-based opinion. The overall odds of a combo being drawn must first begin with the highest and lowest percentages of a single digit being drawn in a given position. Let’s look at position (A) although position (B) falls into the same ranks. The state lists the number (1) as the last official number drawn in (A) from one ‘official draw’ to the next but, this is extremely misleading and inaccurate…deliberately in my honest opinion. The number (1) had a 90% chance of rising in the scale from one ‘clean draw’ to the next one while the number (2) had an 80% chance and they both did exactly as percentages dictated. The number (4) in position (C) is pretty much at 50% due to its’ ‘half scale’ positioning…it’s able to go either way.

Fast forward to pre-test result #4 where (8) is drawn in position (A) and then see the official result in that same position. It followed the percentage rule from pre-test #4 to the official draw, but failed dramatically from what the state posted as the last official result which was (1) right along with position (B)’s results. This makes a difference because we’re dealing with odds and a smart player would use this as a reasonable way to filter out the lowest probability of numbers to be drawn in a position. The str8 winner started with (0) so all combos beginning with (0) lost out from jump street and any box/pair combos not containing (0) lost out as well. Likewise, the post-test results proved out again…from one draw right to the next.

The problem is that the players aren’t afforded ‘real time’ results to accurately arrange their numbers by when ‘following’ or ‘playing behind’ draw results. They’re always dealing with ‘old news’ which doesn’t do anything but cause less than optimum numbers to play. In my opinion, you cannot have the best chance of winning if you’re chasing inaccurate positioning from up to five draws ago and it’s where the states shine best. After each official draw they should post the results and not conduct any draws until the very next official one. Or, if they must do tests, go ahead and do the four pre-tests early on and post those results. Then, when it comes time for the official draw, the players have real time and accurate numbers by which to work with. This is way too much like right and fair, though. They believe in purposely keeping players in the dark while they have the advantage anyway with 500:1 odds. In addition, and due to pre-tests, doubles repeat in the same position, the same pairs repeat in the same positions, all odd/even combos repeat up to three times in row, the same two-position sum repeats itself, and many other things I could name. These are all mechanisms for effective filtering that the pre-tests put right back in…purposely. The intent is, in fact, to thwart any system because they know lots of players are very sharp and creative number crunchers.

Personally, this is what I’d rather see: get three buckets each filled with ten-numbered ping-pongs. Right before each draw, have a neutral person stir each bucket with a broom handle real good and then have a blind-folded person walk by and pull one ball from each bucket and show it to the camera. Problem solved, no issues, money saved on worthless machines that provide nothing more than a way to cheat ‘sophisticatedly’. My .02. Oh, and yes…sounds very shady but doesn’t surprise me one bit.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
EdG1955

Marana AZ
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Jun 4, 2014, 6:26 pm

It's very amusing to read all the whining about how the game is rigged. The states all do their best to assure random drawings. That is in their best interest. And random draws are not affected by pre- or post-tests. They're random. Each result set is independent of all other result sets. There is no cheating, fixing, or rigging going on.

There are occasional software bugs in the RNG code, but the bugs have never been shown to benefit anybody. As a professional programmer with 40 years experience, I can assure you that I have inadvertently created a bug in at least one program I wrote. It happened on a Tuesday, as I recall.

If you're not winning, it's because you're not picking the correct numbers. Nobody is out to get you. Complaining about your lack of success is silly. There is no system or gimmick that will win for you. There are only two guaranteed ways to win: sheer luck, and sheer dumb luck. That's why it's entertainment and not a career.
LottoBoner

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Jun 4, 2014, 9:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by EdG1955 on Jun 4, 2014
It's very amusing to read all the whining about how the game is rigged. The states all do their best to assure random drawings. That is in their best interest. And random draws are not affected by pre- or post-tests. They're random. Each result set is independent of all other result sets. There is no cheating, fixing, or rigging going on.

There are occasional software bugs in the RNG code, but the bugs have never been shown to benefit anybody. As a professional programmer with 40 years experience, I can assure you that I have inadvertently created a bug in at least one program I wrote. It happened on a Tuesday, as I recall.

If you're not winning, it's because you're not picking the correct numbers. Nobody is out to get you. Complaining about your lack of success is silly. There is no system or gimmick that will win for you. There are only two guaranteed ways to win: sheer luck, and sheer dumb luck. That's why it's entertainment and not a career.

I agree that I think the lottery does the best to maintain transparency. I will play the RNG games once in a while, and I do believe that they have the exact same patterns to recognize as ball drawn games.

As for the obessesion with pre-tests, I think its silly and a waste of time and energy. You cant really prove they have any effect at all in my opinion. As gail howard says in her book, "You cant bet on a pre-test" so why be preoccupied with them?

As for that person who worked for the lottery who said they dont keep records of pre-tests, well that is surprising because if you aren't recording what is happening then what's the point? All quality control done has records, so maybe it was somebody just talking when they should have been asking higher up.

But I think there is, in addition to sheer luck and sheer dumb luck, there is also smart luck and sheer smart luck, and sheer smart dumb luck.

The hardest part about smart luck, is that I find myself making the same dumb mistakes. Kind of like stuck in groundhog day.

It kind of like I am sure most pick three players have said to themselves,

"You know that 9 has been hitting all month, but I keep playing the 8. You know that 9 has to stop soon"

Then two months go by, and that same player says THE SAME THING to themselves.

"You know that 9 has been hitting for two months now, It has to stop, I think I will continue playing the 8" Well newsflash!!! No it doesn't have to stop hitting.

And the 8 doesn't have to come soon.

As for Lottery being entertainment, that kind of preposterous.

I dont really see where the entertainment is in losing all your money every week.

The whole entertainment angle is simply a disclaimer to prevent people from suing you.

I don't play for entertainment, although there is something fascinating about the evolving patterns and I do enjoy creating my excel charts. However,

I play to win $$$$$$$$$!

Unitil you actually win some money the game hasZERO entertainment value.

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